******************************************************************************
*                                                                            *
* Todd S. Sechser and Matthew Fuhrmann                                       *
* "Crisis Bargaining and Nuclear Blackmail"                                  *
* International Organization 67:1 (2013): 173-95                             *
*                                                                            *
******************************************************************************


* Purpose
* This is a Stata replication file for "Crisis Bargaining and Nuclear Blackmail." It replicates the regressions, charts, and robustness checks described in the original article and in the document "Sechser-Fuhrmann-Appendices.pdf".
*
* Location
* This command file and associated datasets can be downloaded from <http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/tsechser>.
* 
* Requirements
* 1. This file requires the "estout" Stata package.  It can be installed by typing "ssc install Mout" (without quotes) into the Stata command window, or by visiting <http://repec.org/bocode/e/estout/installation.html>.
* 2. This file also requires the "Clarify" Stata package.  It can be installed by typing "net install clarify, from(http://gking.harvard.edu/clarify)" (without quotes) into the Stata command window, or by visiting <http://gking.harvard.edu/clarify>.
* 3. This file requires the Stata datasets "Sechser-Fuhrmann-Appendix-A.dta" and "Sechser-Fuhrmann-Appendix-B.dta", which can be downloaded from <http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/tsechser>.
*
* Version
* Last updated: January 22, 2013



clear
set more off
di "How much memory would you like to allocate to Stata? " _request(mem)
set mem $mem
*Set directory
di "Please type the pathway for the folder containing the required datasets: " _request(dir)
cd $dir


************
*APPENDIX A*
************

***Appendix Table 1 (also Table 1 in "Crisis Bargaining and Nuclear Blackmail" [p. 184])

use Sechser-Fuhrmann-Appendix-A, clear

eststo M1: probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M2: probit success1 nuclear_challenger nuclear_target nuclear_challenger_x_target stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M3: probit success1 challenger_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M4: probit success1 nuclear_superiority stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M5: probit success1 nuclear_ratio stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M6: probit success1 difference_in_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M7: probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes nuclear_challenger_x_stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)

esttab M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7, se(3) pr2 b(3) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01)


***Data for Figure 1 (also Figure 1 in "Crisis Bargaining and Nuclear Blackmail" [p. 186])

quietly estsimp probit success1 nuclear_challenger nuclear_target nuclear_challenger_x_target stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid) genname(_b) sims(10000)
setx resolve median stakes mean capability_ratio mean dispute_history mean
setx nuclear_target 0
simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(nuclear_challenger 0 1 nuclear_challenger_x_target 0 0) level(90)
setx nuclear_target 1
simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(nuclear_challenger 0 1 nuclear_challenger_x_target 0 1) level(90)
drop _b*
drop if mct == ""


***Appendix Table 2

eststo M1: probit success2 nuclear_challenger stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M2: probit success2 nuclear_challenger nuclear_target nuclear_challenger_x_target stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M3: probit success2 challenger_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M4: probit success2 nuclear_superiority stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M5: probit success2 nuclear_ratio stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M6: probit success2 difference_in_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M7: probit success2 nuclear_challenger stakes nuclear_challenger_x_stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)

esttab M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7, se(3) pr2 b(3) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01)


***Appendix Table 3

eststo M1: probit success3 nuclear_challenger stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M2: probit success3 nuclear_challenger nuclear_target nuclear_challenger_x_target stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M3: probit success3 challenger_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M4: probit success3 nuclear_superiority stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M5: probit success3 nuclear_ratio stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M6: probit success3 difference_in_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M7: probit success3 nuclear_challenger stakes nuclear_challenger_x_stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)

esttab M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7, se(3) pr2 b(3) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01)


***Appendix Table 4

eststo M1: probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if year >=1945, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M2: probit success1 nuclear_challenger nuclear_target nuclear_challenger_x_target stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if year >=1945, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M3: probit success1 challenger_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if year >=1945, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M4: probit success1 nuclear_superiority stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if year >=1945, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M5: probit success1 nuclear_ratio stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if year >=1945, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M6: probit success1 difference_in_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if year >=1945, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M7: probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes nuclear_challenger_x_stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if year >=1945, cluster(dyadid)

esttab M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7, se(3) pr2 b(3) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01)


***Appendix Table 5

eststo M1: probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes capability_ratio dispute_history, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M2: probit success1 nuclear_challenger nuclear_target nuclear_challenger_x_target stakes capability_ratio dispute_history, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M3: probit success1 challenger_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M4: probit success1 nuclear_superiority stakes capability_ratio dispute_history, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M5: probit success1 nuclear_ratio stakes capability_ratio dispute_history, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M6: probit success1 difference_in_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M7: probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes nuclear_challenger_x_stakes capability_ratio dispute_history, cluster(dyadid)

esttab M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7, se(3) pr2 b(3) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01)


***Appendix Table 6
eststo M1: probit success1 nuclear_challenger2 stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M2: probit success1 nuclear_challenger2 nuclear_target2 nuclear_challenger_x_target2 stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M3: probit success1 challenger_arsenal_size2 stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M4: probit success1 nuclear_superiority2 stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M5: probit success1 nuclear_ratio2 stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M6: probit success1 difference_in_arsenal_size2 stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M7: probit success1 nuclear_challenger2 stakes nuclear_challenger_x_stakes2 capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, cluster(dyadid)

esttab M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7, se(3) pr2 b(3) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01)


***Appendix Table 7
eststo M1: probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=2, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M2: probit success1 nuclear_challenger nuclear_target nuclear_challenger_x_target stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=2, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M3: probit success1 challenger_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=2, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M4: probit success1 nuclear_superiority stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=2, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M5: probit success1 nuclear_ratio stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=2, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M6: probit success1 difference_in_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=2, cluster(dyadid)

esttab M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 , se(3) pr2 b(3) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01)


***Appendix Table 8
eststo M1: probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=255, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M2: probit success1 nuclear_challenger nuclear_target nuclear_challenger_x_target stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=255, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M3: probit success1 challenger_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=255, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M4: probit success1 nuclear_superiority stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=255, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M5: probit success1 nuclear_ratio stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=255, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M6: probit success1 difference_in_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=255, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M7: probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes nuclear_challenger_x_stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=255, cluster(dyadid)

esttab M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7, se(3) pr2 b(3) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01)


***Marginal effect of nuclear possession in Appendix Model 28

quietly estsimp probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes nuclear_challenger_x_stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if year >=1945, cluster(dyadid) genname(_b) sims(10000)
setx resolve median stakes 1 capability_ratio mean dispute_history mean
simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(nuclear_challenger 0 1 nuclear_challenger_x_stakes 0 1) level(90)
drop _b*
drop if mct == ""


***Marginal effect of nuclear possession in Appendix Model 55

quietly estsimp probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes nuclear_challenger_x_stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve if ccode_a ~=255, cluster(dyadid) genname(_b) sims(10000)
setx resolve median stakes 1 capability_ratio mean dispute_history mean
simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(nuclear_challenger 0 1 nuclear_challenger_x_stakes 0 1) level(90)
drop _b*
drop if mct == ""


************
*APPENDIX B*
************

***Appendix Table 9

eststo M1: probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve post_1945, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M2: probit success1 nuclear_challenger nuclear_target nuclear_challenger_x_target stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve post_1945, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M3: probit success1 challenger_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve post_1945, cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M4: probit success1 nuclear_superiority stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve post_1945, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M5: probit success1 nuclear_ratio stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve post_1945, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M6: probit success1 difference_in_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve post_1945, cluster(dyadid)
eststo M7: probit success1 nuclear_challenger stakes nuclear_challenger_x_stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve post_1945 , cluster(dyadid)

esttab M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7, se(3) pr2 b(3) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01)


***Appendix Table 10

use Sechser-Fuhrmann-Appendix-B, clear

eststo M1: heckprob success1 nuclear_challenger stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, select (threat_initiation = nuclear_challenger capability_ratio dispute_history post_1945 time time2 time3) cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M2: heckprob success1 nuclear_challenger nuclear_target nuclear_challenger_x_target stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, select (threat_initiation = nuclear_challenger nuclear_target nuclear_challenger_x_target capability_ratio dispute_history post_1945 time time2 time3) cluster(dyadid)
eststo M3: heckprob success1 challenger_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, select (threat_initiation = challenger_arsenal_size capability_ratio dispute_history post_1945 time time2 time3) cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M4: heckprob success1 nuclear_superiority stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, select (threat_initiation = nuclear_superiority capability_ratio dispute_history post_1945 time time2 time3) cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M5: heckprob success1 nuclear_ratio stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, select (threat_initiation = nuclear_ratio capability_ratio dispute_history post_1945 time time2 time3) cluster(dyadid) 
eststo M6: heckprob success1 difference_in_arsenal_size stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, select (threat_initiation = difference_in_arsenal_size capability_ratio dispute_history post_1945 time time2 time3) cluster(dyadid) eststo M7: heckprob success1 nuclear_challenger stakes nuclear_challenger_x_stakes capability_ratio dispute_history resolve, select (threat_initiation = nuclear_challenger capability_ratio dispute_history post_1945 time time2 time3) cluster(dyadid)

esttab M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7, se(3) pr2 b(3) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01)
